Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.036339 0.041462 0.047084 0.053719 0.061342 0.069835 0.080028
2025-01-05 0.027135 0.033736 0.041654 0.051877 0.064766 0.080525 0.101335
2025-01-12 0.022481 0.029586 0.038627 0.051027 0.067669 0.089347 0.119909
2025-01-19 0.018802 0.025904 0.035383 0.049034 0.068318 0.094772 0.134137
2025-01-26 0.017259 0.024759 0.035201 0.050909 0.074134 0.107510 0.159655
2025-02-02 0.016006 0.023804 0.035078 0.052713 0.079881 0.120600 0.187094
2025-02-09 0.014950 0.022974 0.034981 0.054446 0.085585 0.134098 0.216630
2025-02-16 0.013567 0.021473 0.033673 0.054100 0.087914 0.142481 0.238848
2025-02-23 0.012527 0.020382 0.032860 0.054398 0.091222 0.152660 0.265089
2025-03-02 0.011422 0.019064 0.031533 0.053668 0.092665 0.159781 0.286746
2025-03-09 0.010784 0.018450 0.031290 0.054720 0.097228 0.172652 0.320085
2025-03-16 0.009958 0.017430 0.030251 0.054247 0.098987 0.180655 0.345245
2025-03-23 0.009557 0.017136 0.030473 0.056118 0.105332 0.197917 0.390688
2025-03-30 0.008642 0.015832 0.028777 0.054278 0.104507 0.201611 0.409854
2025-04-06 0.007961 0.014892 0.027649 0.053379 0.105364 0.208575 0.436420
2025-04-13 0.007200 0.013730 0.025999 0.051291 0.103611 0.210096 0.451620
2025-04-20 0.007002 0.013633 0.026371 0.053257 0.110315 0.229618 0.508315
2025-04-27 0.006806 0.013520 0.026695 0.055148 0.117050 0.249923 0.569378
2025-05-04 0.006612 0.013393 0.026975 0.056965 0.123807 0.270997 0.634966
2025-05-11 0.006214 0.012810 0.026272 0.056602 0.125707 0.281472 0.676695
2025-05-18 0.005912 0.012402 0.025896 0.056915 0.129154 0.295823 0.729753
2025-05-25 0.005538 0.011809 0.025075 0.056149 0.130022 0.304237 0.768973
2025-06-01 0.005351 0.011603 0.025074 0.057252 0.135414 0.324023 0.840169